The Hype Test

Hyped, possible or plausible?

Six questions that show which of the three states a project is in. Answer them for one concrete project, pilot or technology you are deciding on right now.

Four minutes · No sign-up · Questions 1 and 5 are knock-outs

By Felix Lenhard. 20 years in innovation consulting, 50+ startups coached at Startup Burgenland, 12 physical products shipped and exited.

01

Who has paid full price for it?

02

How long has this technology been “about to break through”?

Find the oldest headline about it.

03

Who gets paid if it continues?

04

What happens if the budget is cut tomorrow?

05

Which number ends the project?

06

Would you have said this sentence in 2016?

Take the central sentence of your deck. Swap the buzzword for “Industry 4.0”.

Why these six questions

The questions don't change. Only the buzzword.

2011 → 2018

1 April 2011: Industry 4.0 is announced at the Hannover fair, new business models “within the next decade”. January 2016: six in ten companies report no or limited progress. 2018: 84% are stuck in pilot mode for more than a year.

2014 → 2025

Cloud in German firms with ten or more employees: 12% in 2014, 54% in 2025. Eleven years to majority, for the simplest technology there is.

2026

69% of larger Austrian companies use AI, at least in a pilot. 8% of those have scaled it company-wide. Almost every second one cannot evaluate it economically.

Sources: VDI nachrichten, 1 April 2011 · McKinsey, Industry 4.0 Global Expert Survey, January 2016 · McKinsey/IndustryWeek, August 2018 · Destatis press releases 2017, 2021, 2025 · EY AI Readiness Check Austria 2026

More than five pilots and A everywhere?

Then it is time for a Kill Review: an independent stop-or-ship decision on your pilot portfolio, signed by the board, with a receipt after 90 days. We implement nothing.

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